In my
recent visit to London, I attended a presentation given by Dr. Dan Lockton at
the Behavioural Economics drinks. The topic of the presentation was “Paving the
Cow-Paths” or simply put, helping people do what they want how they naturally do
it.
Dan’s presentation made me think about what
does “paving the cow-paths” actually mean from a broader point of view. At
micro-level things are relatively simple. If people do something in a certain
way, help them do it. The pictures below (taken from Dan’s website - Source ) illustrate very well the concept.
At a macro-level, however, things aren’t all
that straightforward. Whether paving the cow-paths is a good idea or not is not
entirely clear and it depends on the context. Moreover, paving the cow-paths
implies giving up on idealism and embracing pragmatism.
Here’s an example: assuming that my book is
sold by two shops. Shop A pays me royalties of 70% of the price of sales. Shop
B gives me 100% of the price in royalties. Assuming both shops sell the book
for the same price, my interest is to get as many sales as possible through
shop B. However, Shop A(mazon) is more popular with the potential clients.
Essentially I have two options. First, I can direct all my promotion effort to
get sales through shop B and let whoever wants to buy from shop A to do so.
Second, I could pave the cow-path and direct my promotion effort to encouraging
people to buy from shop A, thus hoping that the higher volume of sales
generated would compensate the lower percentage in royalties I get from each
sale.
In the
example above the decision of whether to pave the cow path or not is relatively
uncontroversial and could be made through a simple computation. However, there
are other situations in which paving the cow path is a lot more controversial.
Let’s take traffic and speeding as examples. Imagine
that there are two roads, both within city borders, both two lanes per way wide
and on both roads the speed limit is 50 km/h. On both roads there are many (the
wide majority of) drivers drive above the speed limit, say 80 km/h. There is,
however, a difference. One road is in the city centre, while the other is
somewhere at the outskirts between two abandoned industrial sights.
The last piece of information, essentially
refers to the potential dangers of speeding on the road in question. On the
road in the middle of the city, speeding is a lot more dangerous than on the
one between two abandoned factories (where there is little pedestrian traffic).
On both of them people drive faster than the
speed limit (assumingly because they are in a hurry) and if we would apply blindly
the paving the cow path principle, the speed limit should be increased on both
roads.
Obviously, raising the speed limit in the
centre of the city is not necessarily a good idea since this would only
encourage people to drive faster than 50 km/h and this, in turn, is a cause for
accidents. On the other hand, trying to get people to slow down to 50 km/h
through traffic cameras, police, fines, speed bumpers etc. will be very
annoying and a bit absurd when it comes to the road in the abandoned industrial
area. Whereas it makes sense to slow down drivers (through any means) in a
crowded area, it makes no sense to do the same in an area where the dangers of
speeding are very low.
The example above brings into discussion the “no
harm” principle of paving the cow-paths. Basically, if we would raise the speed
limit from 50 to 80 km/h on the road between two abandoned factories, while
keeping and enforcing the 50 km/h speed limit on the road in the city centre,
we would pave the cow-path where actual behaviour that deviates from the
desired behaviour brings no harm.
Except for some advocates of speeding or firm
believers of applying indiscriminate treatment in all cases, the decision to
pave the cow-path on one road and not on the other would bring little
controversy. In fact, I believe, that many people would be happy with it.
Paving the cow-paths can be applied in more
controversial areas of social life such as legalizing or decriminalizing soft-drugs.
Whereas most countries strive for the ideal of a drug free society, some
countries have decriminalized to some extent soft-drugs such as marijuana. For
example, in The Netherlands consumption and possession of small quantities of
the drug are not offences. Moreover, there is a trade system through which one
can purchase the drug legally.
Essentially, the Dutch government paved the cow-path for consumption of
marijuana. It provided a regulated system for trade and consumption, thus
allowing people who want to use the drug to do so legally. The outcome was a
decrease in crime related to drug trafficking.
A couple of years back, there was an initiative
to restrict the selling of marijuana to tourists. Decriminalizing the use of
the drug transformed The Netherlands and particularly Amsterdam in a drug tourism
destination. Moreover, the country’s southern provinces became a supply spot
for Belgian and French users of the drug. After considerable debate, the three
southern provinces bordering Belgium implemented the policy of not allowing the
sale of marijuana to non-residents (tourists). The outcome, unfortunately was
the occurrence of street trafficking and related crime.
The city council of Amsterdam opposed
implementing this policy for the same reason. Although most people in Amsterdam
are not delighted by drug-tourism, they acknowledge that restricting the access
of tourists to the coffee-shops (where marijuana is sold) will only increase
crime in the city.
Basically, the Netherlands accepted that it can’t
be a drug-free society. It chose to pave the cow-path for the consumption of
marijuana and to focus the law-enforcement’s resources towards tackling the
trafficking and use of more dangerous drugs.
Whether this is a good approach for all
societies remains to be answered. It works reasonably well for the Netherlands.
Paving the cow-paths implies giving up on
ideals such as drug-free society and not speeding within city-borders. It is
the path-way towards pragmatism and tackling the issues that generate the most
problems. In the end, ideal situations might very well be utopic. Paving
cow-paths can be a solution to minimizing undesired behaviour and freeing up
resources that can be directed to more serious issues.