24 January 2014

Airplane Crash, Blinding Emotions and Uncritical (Causal) Thinking - Irrationalities of WHY Part 2

About four days ago, a small airplane crashed in the western mountains of Romania. There are two particularities of this airplane accident: First, the passengers were medical doctors who were transporting an organ for a transplant – life savers. Add to this that the pilot of the plane was more or less of a “media personality”. The second particularity of this accident is that everyone survived the impact. However, due to injuries the pilot and a medical student died before help reached them (which took about 6-7 hours).

Not surprisingly, the mass media was and is full of stories, news etc. regarding this accident and some heads (including Minister of Internal Affairs) rolled as a punishment for the chaotic manner in which the saving operation has happened. (Just as a note: a lot of hindsight bias here). Not surprisingly there is a lot of emotion attached to this sad event and this led to it overshadowing other events much more important for the country, but this is not what I want to talk about…

The public opinion is outraged of the fact that two people died because help arrived at the scene too late. I would see the up-side… help arrived in time to save another five people… in case you don’t know it’s literally freezing in the mountains in winter.

And the weather and winter conditions are what I want to talk about. Thick snow (between 30 and 60 cm) is one of the causes that led to help arriving late (another is a bit of traditional Romanian idiotic management). Cold weather and thick snow for sure didn’t help the people who were in the airplane after it crashed. Broken bones and being in the cold for seven hours are not exactly a pleasant mix.

But there is another thing about cold weather and thick snow: I believe that it was the thing that saved the lives of the five people who survived. It sounds a bit paradoxical since thick snow and the cold caused a delay in help arriving (hiking on mountains in the summer time is wonderful, doing so in winter is dreadful). Moreover, low temperatures might have contributed to the death of the two victims.

Leave these negative influences of the snow and cold weather and think how come that all seven passengers survived the actual impact… the airplane is a small – light-weight one… and as you already know mountains are made of rock and the soil (ground) on top of the rock is quite thin. Without claiming that I am an expert in physics, I believe that the thick lair of snow on the mountain had a huge contribution in making the impact non-lethal… Naturally the pilot’s actions played a role too… may he rest in peace…

Add to this that there was no fire, despite the airplane loosing fuel … When metal hits rock there can be sparks… when it hits snow, not so much…

Something that is the cause of a bad thing can be a hidden cause of something good…






No comments: