Imagine the following
situation. You feel sick and go to the doctor. After running some tests, the
doctor tells you that you have a serious condition and in order to get healthy
again, you have to get surgery. The doctor has to inform you about the risks
the procedure comes with and he invites you in his office to discuss the issue.
The doctor tells you that
the procedure has been done countless times and it has a rate of 95%
success and survival.
How willing are you to
have the surgery? Rate it on a scale from 1 to 10…
OK! Now clear your mind
for a second … or two …
Now imagine that you went
to the doctor, the diagnostic was the same and the doctor invites you in his
office to discuss the risks of the surgery.
The doctor tells you that
the procedure has been done countless times and it has good results, but there
is a rate of 5% mortality.
How willing are you to
have the surgery? Rate it on a scale from 1 to 10…
There is a very high
probability that you would be more willing in the first scenario than in the
second. We all realize that 95% success rate implies a 5% failure rate and vice
versa, but the way in which a piece of information is framed has a huge
influence on our decisions and subsequent behaviors.
Another example comes from
the food industry where some labels say 90% fat free. At the same
time this means that 10% of the product is pure fat. However, we have to agree
that for most people it is much more appealing to buy a 90% fat free product
than to buy a product that has 10% pure fat.
These changes of
perspective are based on what the reference point is. In the case of 90% fat
free, the implicit reference point is 100% fat, thus making something 90% fat
free is perceived as a gain.
However, if we say 10%
fat, the implicit reference point is 0% fat, thus having 10% fat is perceived
as a loss.
Things are similar with
the surgery situation. When the doctor informs you that the procedure has a
success rate of 95% the implicit reference point is a success rate smaller than
95%, thus the outcome is perceived as a gain.
However, when the doctor
says that the procedure has a 5% failure (and mortality) rate, then the
implicit reference point is 0% failure, thus the 5% rate is perceived as a
loss.
No comments:
Post a Comment